Ethereum: What is the probability of forking in blockchain?

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The likelihood of formation in blockchain: complex landscape

Ethereum, one of the most popular blockchain platforms, is experiencing an increase. However, understanding the likelihood behind these events can be a scary task for new users. IN

The likelihood of finding a new block

In Blockchain, each block contains a unique code added to the chain because more blocks are mined. Number of new blocks that can be found in a particular period of time. “This phenomenon is happening because the block reward is reduced by half a year every four years, the less users can find a new block.

The likelihood of finding a new block is proportional to the number of unconfirmed transactions in the network and block award. However, like:

1.

• Block size limit

  :

General Formula: The probability of a fork

There is no formula. However, we

Suppose and simplified the model where:

• Network congestion :

• Block size limit :

Historical data:

Volley probability formula

P (Forking) ≈ 1 – (1 / (total unconfirmed transactions \* block of rewards per user))

This formula is purely theoretical and should be taken as a rough estimate. The likelihood of a fork in the real world is likely to differ depending on certain network conditions, such as:

• Network congestion: High values ​​N (number of unconfirmed transactions) can increase the likelihood of a fork.

• Block size limit: Increase in block sizes can reduce the frequency of a fork.

Example in the real world

Data. Suppose we assume that the total number of users per million (rough estimate for Ethereum). We also assume that the block reward per user is 10 eth (fictional value).

Using the upper formula, we can calculate the estimated probability of a fork:

P (forking) ≈ 1 – (1 / 100,000,000 \* 10 et)^((4 years / 2 years)) ≈ 0.017%

This estimate assumes that the network is perfectly optimized, which is unlikely to happen in real scenarios.

Conclusion

Although there is no formulation for calculating the likelihood of a fork, a rough assessment can develop using historical data and theoretical models. However, the fee on the Ethereum (or any blockchain) is still largely unpredictable, which is important to be informed about network conditions and potential risks.

** What follows?

future privacy challenges