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5 Feb 2025

FUD, Total Supply, Technical Indicators

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“Cryptocurrency Market Suffers from Fear and Uncertainty (FUD) Despite Growing Adoption and Solid Technical Solutions”

The cryptocurrency market has been plagued by fear and uncertainty in recent months, with many investors questioning the long-term viability of digital currencies. However, despite the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies and rising prices, there are still concerns that have contributed to this sentiment.

A common theme in the spread of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) is the “full supply” of cryptocurrencies. Some market participants believe that a significant portion of the total cryptocurrency supply has been burned or removed from circulation through various means, such as mining hardware failures, stock market crashes, or other events. As a result, they argue, there are not enough new coins available to drive up prices and create a sense of scarcity.

However, this outlook is challenged by technical indicators that suggest that the total supply of the cryptocurrency is still relatively high compared to the number of coins in circulation. The most notable example of this is the “total supply” metric, which estimates that approximately 40-50% of all Bitcoins have been burned or withdrawn from circulation since their creation.

Another issue that contributes to FUD is the lack of transparency and regulation in the cryptocurrency space. The constant introduction of new coins to the market, as well as the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies, can create uncertainty about the long-term prospects of individual assets. Additionally, regulatory changes and updates have been met with widespread fear and uncertainty, leading some investors to question whether the market is “safe” or not.

Despite these concerns, technical indicators provide a more optimistic outlook for the future of cryptocurrency markets. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has trended higher for several cryptocurrencies, indicating strong buying pressure from bulls. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests that price action could reverse and head in the opposite direction.

The “buy signal” is also being reinforced by the increasing number of institutional investors entering the market. As more and more people join the fray, they bring their expertise and resources with them, which can help push prices higher and build investor confidence.

In conclusion, while FUD remains a significant problem in the cryptocurrency market, it is not necessarily an insurmountable problem. By focusing on technical indicators such as total supply, RSI, MACD, and institutional investor activity, investors can better understand market dynamics and make more informed decisions about how to allocate their capital.

Technical Indicators Used:

  • Total Supply (TSS): Estimates the number of coins burned or withdrawn from circulation since Bitcoin was created.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures the magnitude of price movements, with values ​​above 70 indicating overbought conditions and values ​​below 30 indicating oversold conditions.
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Indicates trends in price movements by calculating the difference between two moving averages.

Sources:

  • Total Supply Estimate from CryptoSlate
  • RSI Calculations via Quandl API
  • MACD Calculations via Quandl API

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